Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.397372 1.475589 1.557052 1.648450 1.748401 1.854685 1.976645
2025-12-07 1.265609 1.373459 1.490700 1.628422 1.786820 1.964578 2.180991
2025-12-14 1.168573 1.290386 1.426513 1.591358 1.787569 2.016251 2.306908
2025-12-21 1.107645 1.240383 1.392091 1.580502 1.811383 2.089455 2.456728
2025-12-28 1.071863 1.215477 1.382980 1.595880 1.863961 2.197114 2.654004
2026-01-04 1.027460 1.176773 1.353766 1.582983 1.878137 2.254697 2.788053
2026-01-11 1.002669 1.159768 1.349023 1.598808 1.927911 2.359456 2.992114
2026-01-18 0.974409 1.136619 1.334760 1.600618 1.958051 2.438409 3.165208
2026-01-25 0.961140 1.131125 1.341835 1.629581 2.025021 2.571063 3.427170
2026-02-01 0.923861 1.093472 1.305723 1.598927 2.007747 2.582614 3.506100
2026-02-08 0.883819 1.050765 1.261244 1.554662 1.968535 2.559099 3.526870
2026-02-15 0.859471 1.027389 1.241030 1.542207 1.973153 2.599469 3.652110
2026-02-22 0.842738 1.014135 1.234663 1.549900 2.009154 2.692383 3.878954
2026-03-01 0.816907 0.988079 1.210221 1.531200 2.005439 2.724132 4.005774
2026-03-08 0.787312 0.956010 1.176394 1.497493 1.977133 2.714673 4.058057
2026-03-15 0.768128 0.937187 1.159845 1.487607 1.983923 2.761219 4.215834
2026-03-22 0.758486 0.930793 1.159976 1.501609 2.027715 2.870776 4.503858
2026-03-29 0.740707 0.912748 1.143203 1.489867 2.030326 2.911190 4.662470
2026-04-05 0.732562 0.907561 1.144142 1.504274 2.074910 3.026247 4.985841
2026-04-12 0.720765 0.896933 1.136928 1.505922 2.098698 3.106363 5.247561
2026-04-19 0.717265 0.897649 1.145804 1.532271 2.164308 3.266600 5.709171
2026-04-26 0.697475 0.875011 1.120279 1.504383 2.137481 3.254212 5.776012
2026-05-03 0.674787 0.847811 1.087465 1.464064 2.087792 3.195767 5.727636